In January 2015, the domestic ports about 6.89 million tons soybean imports.

Downturn in the downstream of the pig breeding stock to the fall in soybean meal consumption deprive soymeal demand fundamentals, which appear in the case of soybean meal concentration increased supply and demand side weakness has prompted the probability of soybean meal in spot prices continue to increase. Look from can amount of sows, stock will remain low level in the first half of 2015 pigs, pig Feed demand may be slowing, but on the premise of no major outbreaks, poultry Feed demand is expected to recover.

A, global soybean fertility, domestic inlet pressure to be reckoned with, soybean meal spot market supply pressure increases

1, the global soybean in plentiful supply
The U.S. department of agriculture (USDA), according to a report issued in January 2014/2015 global soybean production is expected to be 314 million tons, more than 2013/2014 of 30.63 million tons, the production mainly comes from the bean planting area and yield increased dramatically and South American soybean production expected, including the United States, Brazil, Argentina soybean yield increase of 16.62 million tons, 8.8 million tons, 1 million tons; Are expected to reach 286 million tons, 2014/2015 global soy consumption is 2013/2014 of the annual increase of 13.84 million tons. Due to the increase in global soybean supply exceeds the demand, makes the final inventory increased to 90.78 million tons, inventory consumption ratio increased to 31%, more than 2013/2014 of 24% of the global soybean supply and demand present situation easing.
2, 2014 imports hit a record high
Customs data show that China imported 8.53 million tons of soybeans in December 2014, up 15.3% from a year earlier, a 41.5% growth in November. For all of 2014, China's soybean imports 71.4 million tons, up 12.7% from a year earlier, for soybean imports most of a year. And, in January of this year is expected to amount of soybean imports to Hong Kong in 680-7 million tons, in January 2014, higher than that of 5.91 million tons of more than 100 ten thousand tonnes.
International soybean caused by high prices, the domestic cost soybean imports are also gradually lowered, plus domestic soybean it also makes the domestic soybean meal spot prices under the condition of the raw material prices following the weaker. Under the condition of continued weakness in outside dish of soy, domestic soybean meal in the case of weak downstream demand, the spot price in the short term may continue to fall.
Phase 3, squeezing profits and basis
Disk theory of soybean crushing value, we can see the future soybean meal in pure in the rise and fall of space, because the present stage of is controlled in 5650 yuan/ton, prices of rival soybean oil and soybean oil prices in the short term support than soybean meal, so is researched under the condition of the overall profits are, some will be more likely to cut the price of soybean meal.

Two, Feed enterprises along with filling, soybean meal terminal consumer downturn
Due in December 2014, domestic oil on high load and traders to sell at a lower price, domestic soybean meal spot supplies continue to loose, oil shipments will generally stronger, part - have cut prices to stimulate clinch a deal, but the effect is not significant, in recent period of time the national soybean meal sales without apparent hair amount phenomenon. As of January 28, the mainstream domestic coastal oil soybean meal inventory of 1.3 million tons, rising soybean meal inventory for four weeks, have been part of the oil soybean meal ZhangKu happens, therefore the domestic manufacturers don't try so hard the goods Feed, the Feed manufacturers increases with the increasing use of exploitation strategy. And early Feed domestic enterprises by buying traded below the market price of 1411 and 1411 soybean meal, late as soybean meal futures prices continue to slump, Feed enterprises will get cheaper by the futures market to buy delivery of soybean meal, this form of Feed companies more attractive, increased Feed the wait-and-see attitude of the enterprise, is in no hurry to participate in market replenishment. And researched in order to repatriate funds before the Spring Festival, parts of the existing 2800 yuan/ton the following quotation. But the Feed enterprise procurement negative increased soybean meal futures downward pressure.

Three, pig breeding stock continued to decline, the market pessimistic mood
As of December 2014, the domestic pigs, laying hens, chicken, aquaculture overall decline in profits, including henan, hubei, fujian and other regions pig prices drop slightly, hunan, guizhou and other places of piglet still has a price no city, results in the stagnation of farmers fill column will almost. As of December 2014, more than domestic scale pig breeding stock for 421.57 million head, less in November 9.92 million. Pig breeding stock has been falling for four months. According to the law of historical analysis, the Spring Festival approaching, the pig market accelerate belongs to the normal, but the pig breeding stock for 5 years, the lowest since shows pig farmers for the future prices of pessimism. Downturn in the downstream of the pig breeding stock to the fall in soybean meal consumption deprive soymeal demand fundamentals, which appear in the case of soybean meal concentration increased supply and demand side weakness has prompted the probability of soybean meal in spot prices continue to increase.
In addition, in the first half of 2015 pigs Feed demand growth may slow. In the first half of 2014 due to the impact of bird flu, a sharp drop in poultry Feed production. At the same time, the pig-breeding falling profits, can make the living and breeding pigs breeding sows breeding stock also fell. 2014 years ago in the Feed production is 141.5 million tons, down 1% compared with the same period in 2013. In December 2014, according to the ministry of agriculture data, pig breeding stock for 420 million head, fell 10% year on year; Can domestic breeding swine breeding stock falling for up to 42.89 million head, fell 12% year on year. Look from can amount of sows, stock will remain low level in the first half of 2015 pigs, pig Feed demand may be slowing, but on the premise of no major outbreaks, poultry Feed demand is expected to recover.
Comprehensive the above analysis, as soybean concentrated to the port, the port soybean UC continue to increase, oil machine is in high level. Due to the poor farming demand Feed enterprises to carry out the early stage of the contract is given priority to, soybean meal business inventories continue to rebound; Oil and port to accelerate in soybeans, soybean supply is adequate, chance meeting next week to continue to hold high